US major hurricane landfall risk falls in 2026 outlook, but remains ‘far from negligible’: MS Amlin
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New analysis from insurer MS Amlin has suggested that there is a 27% probability of at least one Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane making landfall during the 2026 season, down from 39% a year ago, as strengthening El Niño conditions suppress Atlantic storm activity.
Sam Phibbs, MS Amlin’s Head of Catastrophe Research, said, “A one-in-four chance of a Category 4 or 5 US hurricane landfall is lower than we were seeing a year ago, but it’s still far from negligible. It only takes one storm to turn a quiet season into a costly one for communities and insurers.
“While El Niño is expected to dampen hurricane activity, its influence is being partly offset by unusually warm tropical Atlantic waters, which are keeping conditions favourable for storms to form and intensify.”
According to MS Amlin, the probability of a Category 4 or 5 landfall in the Gulf of Mexico region has nearly halved from 19% a year ago to 10%.
The insurer noted that Florida remains one of the most exposed stretches of coastline, with the chance of a Category 4 or 5 hurricane landfall declining more modestly from 19% last year to 14%.
“The outlook reflects the emergence of El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean, which typically increase wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and make it harder for hurricanes to form and intensify. NOAA confirmed the emergence of El Niño in June and expects conditions to strengthen during the second half of the year,” MS Amlin explained.
The forecast, developed with catastrophe modelling and climate analytics specialist Reask using its forecast-based hurricane data to calculate landfall probabilities, predicts a below-average Atlantic hurricane season, with 11 named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes, compared with long-term averages of 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes and 3.2 major hurricanes.
Despite the lower figures across the board, MS Amlin has cautioned that lower Atlantic hurricane activity does not necessarily translate into fewer catastrophe losses.
“Last year, no hurricanes made landfall in the US despite forecasts pointing to elevated risk. Yet Hurricane Melissa rapidly intensified into a Category 5 storm before striking Jamaica, causing an estimated $8.8 billion of economic damage,” the firm added.
Phibbs continued, “Where storms make landfall is often more important than how many storms form. A quieter season can still produce significant losses if a major hurricane strikes a highly exposed location.”
The insurer’s forecasts also point to above-average tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific Basin this year as El Niño strengthens.
Tropical Storm Risk predicts 27 tropical storms, 18 typhoons and 11 intense typhoons in the basin, above long-term averages of 26 tropical storms, 16 typhoons and nine intense typhoons.
Phibbs concluded, “The Atlantic may be less active, but risk is shifting rather than disappearing, with lower US hurricane activity accompanied by expectations of more active typhoon conditions in the Pacific.”
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