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Everywhere I look, AI is being positioned as the answer to healthcare’s workforce shortage, and rightly so. Technology can help clinicians work more efficiently, reduce administrative burden and expand access to care. But there’s a more complicated reality: while technology can help close the gap, the healthcare system’s long-term success will still depend on attracting, training and retaining the people who deliver care, working alongside AI.
I have a unique vantage point on this topic. As the leader of innovation and growth for a healthcare educator and the president of a university that trains future healthcare professionals, I see both the promise of technology and the importance of training a workforce equipped to harness it.
The question isn’t whether AI will transform healthcare. It already is. The more important question is how we build a workforce that can meet the growing demand for care. AI may reshape jobs, streamline documentation and improve productivity, but its impact will depend on a workforce prepared to leverage these tools effectively.
To better understand what the shortage could mean for patients, communities and the healthcare system and what it will take to address it, Covista created the Covista Healthcare Workforce Index. Based on a model by Oliver Wyman, the analysis forecasts the healthcare workforce gap through 2040 and estimates how much of that shortfall technology can realistically address.
Behind every shortage statistic is a patient waiting longer for care, a clinician stretched thinner and a community with fewer healthcare resources.
The shortage is large, structural and has real costly implications—workforce gaps are already estimated to cost the system an estimated $46 billion a year. Left unaddressed, the Index forecasts that figure could nearly triple to $140 billion by 2040 – roughly $430 per family today, rising to $1,250. Every American already pays for this shortage, whether or not they can see the bill.
The stakes go beyond dollars. The Index projects that closing the nursing shortage alone could save up to 9,000 lives a year—nearly 100,000 lives cumulatively by 2040, while closing the physician gap could add over six months to average life expectancy. That could be the difference between catching a warning sign at a routine checkup and discovering a diagnosis in the emergency room months later.
AI can and should be part of the solution. The Index estimates that productivity gains from AI could help close as much as 37% of the projected 2040 gap without replacing a single worker. By reducing administrative burdens and streamlining routine tasks, AI can help clinicians spend more time focused on patient care.
At the same time, no single solution is likely to address a challenge of this scale. The pace of AI adoption varies across organizations due to factors such as cost, integration challenges and trust. Just as important, many healthcare organizations are still building the workforce capabilities needed to fully leverage these technologies. AI can only create value when clinicians, administrators and care teams know how to use it effectively. Increased efficiency may also create additional demand for healthcare services. As a result, a full portfolio, built and resourced all at once rather than chosen from a menu, is likely to have the greatest impact. Redesigning care delivery, so more of it happens in primary care, retail clinics, and virtual visits instead of the emergency department, closes more of the gap.
But the most overlooked lever – investing in people – can also have an immense impact. The Index forecasts that attracting, training and retaining clinicians can close more than half of the 2040 gap, more than double AI’s impact. Yet preparing the workforce for the future is more than increasing the number of healthcare professionals. It also means equipping them with the skills to work effectively alongside emerging technologies. One of the biggest barriers to realizing AI’s potential may be the shortage of healthcare professionals trained to use it effectively. That’s why healthcare educators must play a leading role in integrating AI into healthcare education. At Covista, we’re doing that through partnerships with organizations including Google and Hippocratic AI, helping prepare learners for a healthcare environment where human expertise and AI increasingly work hand in hand. Fewer than a quarter of health system executives report investing meaningfully in the education partnerships that build that pathway, even as nearly 70% call those partnerships effective according to the 2026 Covista Care Capacity Monitor. As a university president whose students are largely working adults and career changers, I see daily how much untapped capacity exists in people the traditional pathway into healthcare was never built to reach.
Combine every lever together—care delivery innovation and workforce investment—and the model estimates that 92% of the 2040 gap could close. Focusing on any one lever alone, and the Index forecasts that the country will still be short. The future of healthcare capacity won’t be built by technology or talent alone. It will be built by bringing the two together.
The post Healthcare’s Workforce Future Depends on Both AI and People appeared first on Becker’s Hospital Review | Healthcare News & Analysis.
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đź“° This article is sourced from a trusted healthcare and insurance industry publication. Armfox Healthcare shares this for informational purposes only. Always consult a licensed advisor for personalized guidance.